Chinese cars could account for 33% of global market share by 2030

Experts predict China's global auto market share will be 33% by 2030, compared with an estimated 21% this year.

According to a new report released by consulting firm AlixPartners, Chinese automakers plan to continue expanding overseas markets, aiming to reach a 33% global market share by 2030.

Much of the growth, a forecast 21% market share this year, will come from outside China. Sales outside China could rise from 3 million this year to 9 million by 2030.

Chinese electric car model BYD Seal in the Vietnamese market. Photo: Thanh Nhan

The rapid rise of Chinese companies is a growing concern for established global automakers, with many experts saying that cheap Chinese-made cars will flood the market, undercutting domestically produced models, especially pure electric vehicles.

AlixPartners said it expects Chinese brands to grow in all markets globally. However, for markets like Japan or the US, where vehicle safety standards are stricter and import tariffs are higher, growth expectations will be smaller.

In North America, Chinese automakers are estimated to have just 3% market share, mostly in Mexico, where one in five vehicles is expected to be Chinese brand by 2030.

In most other major regions of the world, Chinese automakers’ market share is expected to increase exponentially, including Central and South America, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa. In Europe, where Chinese automakers have grown rapidly in recent years, their market share could double from 6% to 12% by 2030.

Meanwhile, domestic brands will also grow their market share from 59% to 72%. Established automakers such as General Motors have lost significant market share in China in recent years amid the rapid development of the domestic auto industry.

Chinese automakers have cost advantages, high-tech vehicles that meet changing consumer preferences, fashionable designs, a variety of styles, and an average time to launch a new model of just 20 months, instead of 40 months for traditional models, according to AlixPartners.

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